The Decline

Much has been written about the decline of plant-based meat in recent years. After great growth and momentum for the plant-based category peaked in 2021, subsequent years saw falling sales, cooling investment, and a wave of company insolvencies.

Now, in 2026, we are at the start of the Great Plant-Based Comeback.

Rising Sales

After a period of several years in which plant-based sales fell, there are now several recent indicators that sales are going up.

• In February 2026, Tesco reported that volume sales of plant-based foods grew in 2025 for the first time in years, including demand for plant-based mince increasing by 25%.
• In June 2026, the Good Food Institute Europe reported that 2025 plant-based meat sales volumes were up 17% in France compared to 2024.
• In July 2026, the German newspaper Lebensmittel Zeitung reported that volume sales of plant-based meat grew by 17% in the first part of the year compared to the same period in 2025.

Indeed, the Good Food Institute’s 2026 State of The Industry report reveals that globally, plant-based meat sales increased by 3% in 2025.

The increase is largely attributable to increasing product quality as the worst products were shaken out of the market, and to prices falling relative to conventional meat.

Falling Prices

A few short years ago, plant-based meat carried a significant price premium relative to conventional meat. In many markets, this is still the case, but the trend is a positive one for plant-based meat, and in several key markets, plant-based meat is now cheaper than conventional meat.

• In January 2024, Questionmark reported that a plant-based basket of goods was now cheaper than an animal-based basket of goods in 6 out of 7 supermarkets in the Netherlands. This marked a clear reversal from the same analysis in 2022 when the plant-based basket was consistently more expensive.
• In November 2024, ProVeg Germany reported that a plant-based basket of goods was cheaper than an animal-based basket of goods at Lidl in Germany for the first time, with the average plant-based premium collapsing from 53% in 2022 to 16% in 2024.
• In October 2025, Green Alliance reported that plant-based mince and meatballs became cheaper per kg than meat for the first time in 2025, with plant-based burgers and nuggets reaching price parity. All plant-based products were more expensive than meat just a year earlier.
• In December 2025, Madre Brava reported that the average price of plant-based meat (£10.00/kg) had fallen below the average price of processed poultry (£10.60/kg) and processed red meat (£10.10/kg).

When Lidl announced a new policy of price-matching its plant-based range to the equivalent animal products, it saw plant-based sales grow by 30% within six months in Germany. Similarly, Billa saw plant-based sales grow by 33% within three months of announcing price-matching in Austria.

With price consistently rated as one of the top drivers of food choice, it is likely not a coincidence that this reversal in affordability is coming alongside renewed growth in plant-based sales and investment.

Increased Investment

Globally, investment in plant-based companies peaked in 2021, and subsequently declined for three years in a row. However, the Good Food Institute’s 2026 State of the Industry report shows that trend reversed in the most recent year, with investments up 32% to $450 million in 2025.

This may be the most important indicator of all, because it tells us the most about the market’s future expectations. Whereas it costs nothing for plant-based advocates to say they expect the market to go up (nor for critics to say they expect the market to go down), capital investments reveal what the best aggregated information shows is actually most likely to happen.

Expected Trajectory

Many have observed plant-based products and companies coming and going from the market, and concluded that the market must be failing. However, this pattern of business activity is entirely expected in markets for new products, and is not a sign of decline, but of maturity.

The industry life cycle framework predicts that market emergence is followed by a period of rapid growth, and then a shakeout before reaching maturity. Economists have observed the same pattern across multiple industries since at least the early 1980s.

Throughout the late 2010s, a large number of companies entered the plant-based market during its rapid growth period, as investors and manufacturers sought to cash in on the growing market. This resulted in a saturated market with an abundance of competing brands. Faced with so much choice, consumers eventually selected the best products (primarily in terms of taste and price) and the other products were “shaken out”.

The key point is that this process, which can give the appearance of a market which is failing, is actually good for the market overall. Business competition, consumers selecting the best products, and the other companies failing is the process by which the market learns what the best products are.

While this “shakeout” period is painful for the companies whose products are not selected, it is beneficial for the market overall, because it yields better products on average. This has been observed in the markets for cars and TVs: total sales continued to rise, even as the number of competing companies collapsed. In plant-based meat, some early products failed to meet consumers’ expectations on taste and price, but the concept of plant-based meat always was (and still is) fundamentally a good idea.

In 2026, when the shakeout has left only the best plant-based products on the market and the price of conventional meat continues to spiral at an unprecedented level, it should not come as a surprise that we are at the beginning of the Great Plant-Based Comeback.